Equity Curve Simulator

Calculate scenarios of what a possible equity curve might look like, based on trading-style relevant parameters. The simulator calculates and visualizes possible scenarios of how the performance of an investment strategy could develop, on the basis of predefined parameters. Due to their random nature, results differ each time you run the simulation, even if no changes are made to the parameterisation.

Simulation Parameters





Percentage of current equity risked on each trade

Average win size relative to average loss size


Note: This is an independent, ad-free re-creation for offline / private use, built to emulate the functionality of the Due Diligence Hub Equity Curve Simulator. All computations run locally in your browser — no data is sent anywhere.

Statistical Edge — Expectancy & Kelly Criterion


Expectancy is the average result you can expect per trade, expressed in R-multiples (R = your risk per trade) and as a % of equity: E(R) = (Win% × Win/Loss Relation) − (Loss% × 1). A positive value means the strategy has a statistical edge over a large number of trades.

Kelly Criterion estimates the theoretically optimal fraction of equity to risk per trade to maximise long-term compound growth: f* = Win% − (Loss% / Win/Loss Relation). A negative Kelly value means the parameters imply no edge — risking any capital is expected to lose money over time. Because the full Kelly stake is aggressive and highly sensitive to estimation error, many traders use a fraction of it (e.g. Half Kelly) for a smoother equity curve with lower drawdowns.

Simulated Equity Curves

Set your parameters above and click “Run Simulation” to generate equity curves.
Equity Curve Simulator — local, ad-free re-creation. All calculations run entirely in your browser.

 
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